The quality and sustainability of UK red meat is expected to play a key role in supporting UK exports, according to agricultural experts, as the world is expected to eat more beef, lamb and pork over the next decade.
At the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)’s red meat exports conference 2024, speakers said that the UK could capitalise on growing demand for animal protein.
However, economic headwinds and ongoing supply chain disruptions could threaten this growth.
‘Banner year’
UK red meat exports in 2023 were valued at £1.7bn, according to Nicholas Saphir, chair of AHDB, equalling what had been a banner year for the industry in 2022, but there was “much more to be done” for British exporters to take advantage.
“We produce high-quality meat, we produce sustainable meat,” said Saphir of the UK’s markets.
“We have an environmental opportunity in what will become a market with greater differentiation between meat products that come from places that are cheaper and places where there are added value.
“Clearly, we are that added value.”
Threats and headwinds
Conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere have driven “additional volatility” in global meat markets, just as political uncertainty during the ‘year of democracy’ – where 40% of the world is heading to the ballot box – has caused exchange rates to fluctuate.
Tom Dracup, a lead analyst for red meat at AHDB, said he had “no doubt that a number of people in this room today will be deal[ing] with the consequences of [exchange rates] moving this week.”
Currency markets spiked after contests in Europe and Asia, most recently after French president Emmanuel Macron called snap elections following gains by the far-right in the European parliament.
Economic pressures and supply chain issues have also been playing a role in these headwinds. The ongoing Red Sea crisis, which has disrupted a major trade route between Asia and Europe forcing the lengthy re-routing of ships, was cited by Dracup as an example of increased cost pressures on exporters.
“We’ve seen through the data some movement from ‘fresh’ to ‘frozen’ product categories, which has implications for both imports and exports.”
In spite of this, there were opportunities for UK exporters in the global market.
Future markets
Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found that global consumption of meat was expected to rise by 14% by 2030, compared to 2020.
According to AHDB, worldwide pig meat, beef, and sheep meat consumption is expected to increase by 11%, 10% and 15%, respectively, by 2032.
Markets in the Asia Pacific, such as Taiwan, Japan and China, were seen as the next big source of sales for multiple types of meat product, as a rising global middle-class is prepared to invest more in food.
The longer-term outlook favoured African nations like Nigeria, which is expected to be the third most-populous nation in the world by 2050.
This gave British exporters “enormous opportunities to capitalise in different markets around the world”, said Dracup.
Sustainable benefits?
On the topic of ‘sustainability’, meat consumption has been criticised by environmental campaigners, who highlight the deforestation resulting for intensive cattle-rearing and point to studies suggesting there are more energy-efficient ways for humans to acquire protein.
According to a 2022 study from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 14.5% of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are attributable to livestock farming.
However, according to Dracup and other representatives of the British meat industry, one key advantage of British red meat was its sustainable nature relative to other forms of cattle, as UK animals are mostly grass-fed, with a reduced carbon footprint as a result, which Saphir pointed to as a “differentiator” for UK products.
Additionally, products billed as vegetarian ‘meat’ have seen sales fall, with one report finding that US sales experienced a year-on-year drop of 20.9% in 2023, caused by concerns over cost and ‘heavily-processed’ foods.
“Shifting narrative[s]” on meat alternatives, said Dracup, have led to an increased desire for the original product.
