The big ticket event this week is the Conservative Party’s annual conference, which takes place over the first half of the week. Following the Labour Party’s gathering in Liverpool last week, the opposition party is expected to outline its vision for the future of the country, with major trade implications stemming from its position on the EU and Brexit.
Elsewhere, the Nobel Peace Prize announcement later this week could lead to another set of tariffs or retaliation, if US President Donald Trump does not get the nod, while EU diplomats are set to hash out a major part of the ‘Made in EU’ policy, including whether the UK is included as a trusted partner in European supply chains.
Conservative Party Conference
The Conservatives close out party conference season with their showing in Birmingham. The event started yesterday (4 October) and runs through to Wednesday (7 October).
Today (5 October), shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith is expected to outline his plans for the economy, with promises to cut red tape and taxes while accelerating housebuilding.
Griffith, a former junior trade minister, also told BBC Breakfast that he would back the controversial Heathrow expansion.
Other frontbench figures like shadow pensions minister Helen Whately have been hitting the airwaves, criticising prime minister Andy Burnham’s economic vision, as set out last week at the Labour Party’s conference. Laura Trott and Tom Tugendhat are some of the other big Conservative names slated to give speeches over the next couple of days.
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch will set out her party’s offering. In her opening speech, she moved the Conservatives away from their focus on ‘red wall’ voters in Labour heartlands and onto more traditional ground, with talk of inheritance tax and policies aimed at corporate interests and wealthy voters.
The speech is also Badenoch’s chance to set out her lines on EU-UK relations. An arch-Brexiter, the North West Essex MP has not responded directly to Burnham’s suggestion that he would consider rejoining the EU, but instead criticised his general approach. She admitted that the Tories left the EU “without an economic plan” in a 100-page pamphlet released yesterday.
Her keynote speech is scheduled for the conference’s closing day (7 October).
‘Made in EU’
Politico reports that EU diplomats are meeting in Brussels this week to discuss the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) and ‘Made in Europe’ plan.
A steering document obtained by Politico lays out the questions that will be discussed, such as who is defined as a “partner origin” country under the IAA or whether procurement provisions should exclude bidders based on their country of ownership.
The same document says that technical discussions have covered various options on the geographic scope of the IAA: EU members only, trade partners who provide “equivalent commitments and reciprocity” and extension to trading partners regardless of whether they offer any “reciprocity”.
Westminster has been monitoring the ‘Made in EU’ plan for several months. Senior civil servants told a member-exclusive Chartered Institute special interest group last month that the measures, which could exclude UK firms from EU procurement processes and supply chains, are expected to impact only a small number of industries, with most smaller companies being unaffected.
Nobel Prize announcements
The Nobel Prize Committee sets out its awards over the course of the week, starting with the medical prize today, the committee will slowly release their list of awards culminating in the Nobel Peace Prize.
Given US President Donald Trump’s determination to win the gong for peace, there could be geopolitical and tariff implications if he doesn't. Trump tied the topic of tariffs and the prize together during a conversation with Norwegian finance minister Jens Stoltenberg last year and previously put pressure on Oslo to give him the award.
Additionally, national governments in Israel, Pakistan and Cambodia have nominated him for the award. Last year’s winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, gave her award to Trump, although the rules make it clear the prize it is not transferable, leading many to hope that this year’s iteration will be less controversial.
Over the weekend
· The Brazilian presidential election headed to a run-off after yesterday’s first round result, which saw challenger Flávio Bolsonaro take a narrow lead over incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
· EU ambassador to the UK Jukka Salovaara told the Guardian that the Brussels will be “ready to engage” with the UK
· The US government announced a public consultation on the US, Mexico and Canada (USCMA) trade agreement
Other dates for the diary
· Monday: Nobel Prize for medicine announced
· Tuesday: The FT and Standard Chartered announce the shortlist for Business Book of the Year, with several trade books on the longlist
· Wednesday: Kristalina Georgieva delivers curtain-raiser speech ahead of IMF annual meetings
· Thursday: Holborn and St Pancras by-election for former PM Sir Keir Starmer’s old seat
· Friday: Burnham to speak at ‘innovation summit’ in Manchester
· Saturday: World Mental Health Day
· Sunday: The National Football League (NFL) London series continues, as the Philadelphia Eagles face off against the Jacksonville Jaguars
