French voters delivered a shock result in yesterday’s (7 July) second round of parliamentary elections, after a left-wing alliance unexpectedly prevailed over the far right National Rally (RN).
However, the long-term future remains uncertain as no single group has overall control of the French parliament, potentially heralding a new era of political gridlock.
The gamble
French president Emmanual Macron called the snap election after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) won the European elections in June.
Macron’s gamble appeared to backfire after RN emerged victorious in the first round of voting.
In the run-up to Sunday’s second round, it was widely expected that RN would come first and be best placed to form the next government.
Despite the creation of the republican front - a hasty agreement between left-wing and centrist candidates to block the far-right from power - it still looked as though RN might win the election, although without securing a majority.
An outright victory for Le Pen’s party was seen as a possibility, and the far-right’s nominee for prime minister, Le Pen’s nephew Jordan Bardella, had emphasised that this was the party’s aim.
Shock results
However, in what has seen as a major shock, RN fell to third place while the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) surged to first place. Macron’s centrist Ensemble party came second, an improvement over the first round in which it was beaten into third place.
Le Pen’s younger sister, Marie-Caroline, narrowly failed in her bid for office, while former Socalist president Francois Hollande returned to politics after winning a seat.
According to the French interior ministry, the NPF won 182 seats to Ensemble’s 168 and 143 for RN. The Republicans, once France’s most dominant party, slumped to fourth.
Bardella condemned the “disgraceful alliance” between the centrist and left-wing parties.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the leftwing La France Insoumise party and a former presidential candidate, called on Macron to offer the NFP the first chance to govern.
Next PM
The election plunges France into a period of uncertainty, as there is no clear path for any party to secure enough parliamentary support to form a government.
Incumbent prime minister Gabriel Attal said he would offer Macron his resignation shortly after the exit polls came out but stay in the short term until his replacement was confirmed.
The NFP is a hastily cobbled together alliance that includes parties from the centre-left to the far-left, and is still 100 seats of an overall majority.
Socialist Party leader, Olivier Faure, said NFP would submit a left-wing candidate within the week.
Any left-wing nominee would need to seek support from the centrist or smaller parties. Many outside the far-left parties have expressed opposition to Mélenchon leading the government, while representatives from La France Insoumise have ruled out a deal with centrists.
Reaction
Bloomberg reported that markets initially reacted poorly to the exit poll but have since recovered.
Foreign leaders such as Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez and Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva praised the result.
Polish PM Donald Tusk tweeted: “In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw”, referring to previous accusations that RN was supportive of Russian president Vladmir Putin.