After an intense campaign across 27 EU countries, the European centre-ground appears to have held despite early predictions of a far-right surge.
While Ireland is still counting votes, election results and projections have given a comprehensive projection of how the dust is likely to settle.
Central ground
At the time of writing, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) are predicted to hold 191 seats with the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) 137 and the liberal Renew on 85.
Renew came third – ahead of the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) group – despite losing the most out of any political grouping, down 23 seats on 2019.
“As is starting to become evident, predictions of a far-right surge and collapse of the middle were overbaked,” said Fergus McReynolds, the Institute of Export & International Trade’s (IOE&IT’s) EU director.
The results were driven by national factors more than pan-European issues, says McReynolds, but there is a “varied picture” across the 27 member states:
“The Nordic countries have gone liberal and green, Germany has seen a rise in the centre despite some gains by the far-right and France is a different question altogether.”
The Green bloc was down 19 seats, according to final projections, fuelled by significant losses in Germany, despite modest gains in Denmark and Sweden.
No surge
Far-right parties made gains in Germany, France, Austria and Italy, with ECR and ID climbing to 37 and 58 respectively, up four and nine seats since 2019.
However, the news was not universally good for the far-right parties, with advances being limited to a few countries.
In the Netherlands, the labour-green coalition topped the polls ahead of Geert Wilder’s Partij voor de Vrijheid, while Spain, Poland, Portugal and Denmark saw centre-left or centre-right gains with the far-right largely contained to third or fourth place in those elections.
Despite talk of a combination of ID and ECR to create a single hard-right faction, this appears unlikely, says McReynolds.
“I still don’t think the hard right will have enough of a common position to create a ‘super group’.”
Consequences
One of the first tasks of the European Parliament will be to approve the next president of the European Commission (EC) and their slate of commissioners.
Incumbent EC president Ursula von der Leyen, who campaigned as lead candidate of the EPP, appears the “odds-on” favourite to be re-elected to the role based on the results, says McReynolds.
Her election now depends on members of the European Council, who will nominate the candidate for the parliament’s approval.
Shifting coalition
“This election has given us two messages. First, there remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the centre is holding,” she told journalists as results rolled in on Sunday night (9 June).
In her first election, von der Leyen relied on the ‘grand coalition’ of EPP, S&D and Renew to secure a narrow majority.
Based on the results so far, this same coalition would be sufficient for her to return to Brussels as EC president, although she would likely need to go outside of this grouping to secure support, given the risk of defections.
Based on her campaigning, the mandate of von der Leyen is likely to focus on economic security, with a “strong green pillar,” but there might be a different approach to the green new deal over the next five years, says McReynolds.
Domestic results
The success of the National Rally in France, where Marine Le Pen’s party won 30% of the vote to the incumbent party Renaissance's 15%, prompted president Emmanuel Macron to call snap parliamentary elections for later this month.
The election is seen as a risk for Macron, as if his party loses control of the national assembly, his ability to pass legislation will be severely curtailed. The move replicates a move made by Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez earlier this year, when he won a snap election campaign called in the aftermath of poor local election results for his Socialist Party and gains by the far-right Vox party.
In the Spanish European elections, the Popular Party’s (PP) attempt to make the elections be seen as a referendum on Sanchez appear to have returned mixed results. Although the PP narrowly won the election, it did not appear to have inflicted enough damage on Sanchez to bring down his minority administration.
In Belgium, incumbent prime minister Alexander De Croo resigned from office after his liberal Flemish party suffered heavy losses.
In Italy, PM Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy took first place, polling ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) scored major gains in Germany, while all members of the governing coalition suffered heavy losses. The AfD was kicked out of ID after its lead candidate stated that not all members of the SS were criminals, and its MEPs will sit as independents as a result.
In Poland, the Law and Justice party finished second to PM Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, breaking a nine-election winning streak for the hard-right party.
