2024 has been a tumultuous year for international trade, including everything from the first withdrawal from a US presidential race since the 1960s to the formation of the first UK Labour government for 14 years, as well as rising global tension and conflict.
In a special edition of our regular retrospective, the Daily Update reviews the year for both global trade and the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade.
The big picture: This year was a ‘year of democracy’, where over half the world’s population was eligible to vote in elections. Those elections delivered on the drama: in the UK alone, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government lost in a landslide to Keir Starmer’s Labour.
In the US, meanwhile, a presidential election that polling suggested was 50/50 delivered a clear win for former president Donald Trump, whose Republican Party also seized control of the US Senate and the House of Representatives. The implications for trade are major: Trump has promised new tariffs on all imports, with even higher rates planned for those from China.
Beyond the UK and US, countries from Algeria to India, Slovakia to the Solomon Islands saw elections to decide their leadership. The effects of their results will be felt throughout 2025 and beyond.
Good year/bad year: In a year when the shadows of tariffs and geopolitical instability were cast over trade, the global freight forwarding market quietly continued to grow. According to trans.info, the market grew by 2.4% in real terms as the Red Sea crisis and a host of other factors affected shipping.
There was less positive news for some of Europe’s largest economies, with Germany in particular achieving little growth. While Germany’s most recent figures saw its economy avoid monthly contraction, it is projected to end 2024 on an overall 0.2% contraction for the year. France, meanwhile, faces a political struggle over its government after prime minister Michel Barnier stepped down following his failure to pass a budget bill this month.
The year in customs: The Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) was the major story this year, entering force on 31 January before its second phase began on 30 April. The government recently sought traders’ views on further upcoming changes, which will require safety and security (S&S) declarations on all EU imports from 31 January 2025.
Our member-exclusive Customs Corner stories covered this and other BTOM changes, as in our most recent edition, which looked at other early 2025 requirements. There were also important changes to phase 5 of the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS5), the Customs Declaration Service (CDS) and duty repayment.
How’s stat: US$33trn – the total value of global trade in 2024 according to a United Nations report published this month. The organisation said it showcased “remarkable resilience despite persistent economic and geopolitical challenges”.
Quote of the year: “This is the policy that built this country, and this is the policy that will save our country.”
Trump on the higher tariffs he has promised to impose on all goods entering the US when he assumes the presidency for a second time next year. They could have a significant effect on nations like Canada, whose imports Trump has said he will target from the start of his administration – the head of the Bank of Canada warned last week that the measures could have a “dramatic” effect. The UK may fare comparatively well, however, according to a majority of global economists polled by Reuters.
What else we covered this year: This year, we became the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade after the achievement of being granted a Royal Charter. It is a significant milestone that reflects the continued contribution of the Chartered Institute, ahead of the 90th anniversary of our founding in 2025.
Our second annual Import Export Show delivered insights on global trade, including analysis on the likely impact of Trump’s return for UK firms, and saw a raft of new import-export achievers garlanded at the International Trade Awards 2024.
Continued conflict in the Middle East had several knock-on effects on trade, including the suspension of some export licences to Israel by the UK government. The Red Sea crisis also caused changes to supply chains as shipping companies diverted their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi rebel attacks. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Jansen suggested the crisis could continue into the first half of 2025.
Earlier this month, the World Trade Organization (WTO) approved a second term for its director general, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She secured a second four-year term ahead of the return of Trump, whose former trade representative Robert Lighthizer called her “China’s ally in Geneva”.
Another incumbent got a contract extension too, as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen was handed another term following European elections – though her new-look Commission was approved by the European Parliament by the lowest margin in some time.
Among the flurry of trade stories in the final few months of the year is last week’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which we explored in our recent member-exclusive Trade Explained feature, as well as a free International Trade Week webinar on how to make the most of the new opportunities the agreement presents.
True facts: The Labour Party returned to power in the UK this year after 14 years outside of government. The general election victory meant the party formed a government one century on from its first stab at leading the country, when James Ramsay MacDonald became both prime minister and foreign secretary.
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