This week has heralded World Trade Organization (WTO) warnings about global trade falling in the wake of US president Donald Trump’s tariffs. There’s also been a welcome drop in UK inflation, as well as possible fallout from the UK government’s British Steel intervention.
From the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, there was tariff talk at a LinkedIn Live event this week, as well as a video explainer on upcoming Winsor Framework changes.
The big picture: The WTO expects the value of global trade to contract in 2025 as a result of US president Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook, the WTO said that it expected a 0.2% fall in goods trade, driven by a predicted 12.6% fall in North American exports. Even trade in services, which is not directly impacted by the tariffs, is expected to grow at a slower rate.
Trade could shrink by 1.5% this year if the situation “deteriorates”, said the WTO. Initial estimates suggested that the growth of goods trade would have been as high as 2.7% in 2025. The report warned that the “unprecedented nature of the recent shift in trade policy” posed a challenge for its forecasters, since there was no directly comparable event in recent history.
Good week/Bad week: It’s been a good week for UK inflation, which fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% the month before. This was driven largely by the falling price of petrol, which became 1.6p cheaper per litre between February and March. Recreational goods and activities like toys, games and hobbies also became cheaper.
However, experts predict this reprieve will be short-lived, with higher bills as well as business costs, in the form of increased minimum wage and NI employer payments, taking effect.
Pressure could still be on the Bank of England to cuts rates when the monetary committee meets next month amid the impact of Trump’s tariffs, weaker investment and consumer confidence trending downwards, according to Oxford Economics senior advisor and former committee member Michael Saunders.
Not great news for the UK’s upcoming energy summit – of the 60 countries convening to talk energy security next week, China won’t be among them. As the world’s largest polluter and also the biggest manufacturer and exporter of green tech, its absence is a blow to the summit.
The Guardian reports that the no-show is down to the unavailability of China’s senior energy official, but its been noted that this comes amid the UK government’s recent takeover of British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant from Chinese owner Jingye and ratcheting trade tensions with the US.
Former head of the UK’s all-party parliamentary group on climate change Robbie MacPherson told the publication that “transitioning away from fossil fuels requires the participation of all emitters”.
“Engaging China is critical to ensuring action that safeguards the planet and unleashes the renewable energy age.”
How’s stat? US$5.5bn. That’s the hit US chipmaker Nvidia will be forced to take if the US goes ahead with plans to further restrict semiconductor exports to China.
The FT reports that the firm’s CEO Jensen Huang is currently in Beijing, speaking to the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, which facilitates US-China business relations.
His trip follows the US government’s announcement on Tuesday, that the firm would no longer be able to sell its low-powered H20 model chips to Chinese buyers. H20s were specifically designed for the Chinese market to satisfy controls brought in last year on Nvidia’s most cutting-edge tech.
The week in customs: In this week’s edition of Customs Corner, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) expert Joseph Goldsworthy offered insight on of the UK government’s expanded ban on personal imports of certain European animal products. This followed the recent spike in foot and mouth disease (FMD) cases on the continent.
Goldsworthy warned that, were the disease to reach UK shores, the results would be “catastrophic”, and commended strong steps taken to “ensure the security of UK farmers and hopefully prevent illegal imports from FMD-affected areas”.
Quote of the week: “The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade. However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular.”
WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, speaking on the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
What else we covered this week: The Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade hosted a LinkedIn Live event on Tuesday (15 April) addressing the impact of tariffs on UK businesses. You can read the write-up here, which features insights from legal and political experts.
Ahead of the final implementation of the Windsor Framework on 1 May, HMRC and the Chartered Institute produced a video explaining what the changes means for traders.
Following last week’s Lunchtime Learning on the topic, we have a series of insights on the General Product Safety Regulations (GPSR), addressing your questions about the recently introduced requirements.
True facts: It’s been 43 years since Canada officially became a fully independent nation, with the Canada Act’s proclamation by Queen Elizabeth II ending Britain’s ability to legislate for it.
Canada signed its first free trade agreement as an independent nation five years later with the US. The North American Free Trade Agreement, which included Mexico, was signed after another five years in 1992.
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