The UK general election campaign hits the home straight, while the US one kicks off in earnest with a 90-minute debate. This week also sees crucial EU meetings, including on the shape of the next European Commission, and reports on the US economy, UK financial sector and aid for developing countries.
Election mania
The final showdown beckons between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak this week, with the two set to take part in the last general election debate on Wednesday (26 June) before voters go to the polls next week (4 July). The two face back-to-back interviews with the Sun newspaper today, while Starmer also speaks to Paul Brand from ITV on Thursday (27 June).
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) publishes its analyses of the various major party manifestos today. It follows a briefing note yesterday reported by the Evening Standard which suggested that the Labour and Conservative parties’ manifestos would require “sharp cuts” to public services as it stands.
On Saturday, the Guardian noted the suggestion by “leading economists and diplomats” that Labour would be unable to maximise the UK’s growth without rejoining the EU’s customs union, something which Starmer and other shadow ministers have explicitly ruled out.
As the UK election debates reach their conclusion, the US debates begin. President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump will debate one another on Thursday in Atlanta. Among other things, the two could face questions on US protectionism and China, following the imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) by the Biden administration last month.
Global meetings
The European Council meeting takes place on Thursday, with the recent European Parliament election results likely to play a role in its deliberations.
The main item on the agenda is to assign the top jobs in the European Commission (EC) – as Politico reports that current EC president Ursula von der Leyen could face difficulties in returning to her role, following opposition from the right of the parliament.
It follows the announcement by the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU this week that it had adopted “negotiating frameworks” for the accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the bloc. Negotiations are set to launch tomorrow.
China hosts a meeting of global figures this week too, as the World Economic Forum’s 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions runs from Tuesday to Thursday in the city of Dalian. With representation from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Rwanda, Malaysia and others, the forum will explore the role of China in the global economy, as well as developments like AI.
Stats and stability
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual report on the US is published today, providing a snapshot of an economy that the organisation predicted in April would grow twice as fast as other countries in the G7 over 2024. Final Q1 GDP figures for the US, published on Thursday, could further fill out the picture.
The Bank of England has a report on the stability of the UK’s financial system to share on Thursday. Last week, the Bank maintained its current 5.25% interest rate after inflation finally hit the target rate of 2%, but minutes from the rate-setting meeting suggested that a cut in the interest rate could follow at the next such meeting on 1 August, according to the BBC.
The OECD offers up insights on international trade in services today, publishing its latest Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) numbers. The database “allows individual countries to benchmark their services market regulations against the global best practice”, the organisation says.
It will also jointly publish its report on ‘Aid for Trade at a Glance’ with the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday, which examines how current trends in foreign aid are helping developing nations “integrate into the global economy and benefit from trade opportunities”.
Other dates for the diary
Monday: CBI industrial trends survey results published
Tuesday: UK hosts state banquet for the emperor and empress of Japan
Wednesday: US Federal Reserve publishes bank ‘stress test’ results
Thursday: UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s world drug report published
Friday: Iranian presidential election
Saturday: Mauritania presidential election
Sunday: Asteroid Day